Germany’s Role in a Changing World: Can It Lead the EU’s Green Strategy?
The re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump has set the stage for major global shifts, creating challenges for Germany’s new government following its snap elections. With transatlantic relations strained and defence policy under scrutiny, the following German leadership will play a crucial role in shaping the EU’s future—especially in climate policy, economic competitiveness, and energy security.
A Shifting Transatlantic Relationship
The new U.S. administration has sidelined both Ukraine and the EU in talks with Russia, disrupting the unified Western stance since the start of the war. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has clarified that America will no longer be Europe’s primary security guarantor. Meanwhile, at the Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance accused Europe of limiting free speech, appearing to support Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. In response, Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned against foreign interference in Germany’s democracy just days before the elections.
Germany now faces a crucial test. With the EU struggling under internal political challenges, Berlin must ensure stronger coordination among member states and reinforce the EU’s global role.
The Challenge of Trump’s Foreign Policy
Many European leaders are only beginning to grasp the reality of Trump’s second term. Jana Puglierin of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has called Europe’s lack of preparation “a scandal,” emphasizing that Trump’s approach to multilateralism, the EU, and NATO should have been expected.
Polls indicate that Europeans increasingly view the U.S. as a strategic partner rather than a shared-values ally. Again, Trump’s rejection of the Paris Climate Agreement reinforces these concerns. Some analysts even suggest that the EU should prepare for a future where the U.S. is treated more like China: a necessary but unpredictable partner.
What’s Next for Germany’s Leadership?
Polls predict a victory for the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its leader, Friedrich Merz, who has warned of a potential “break-in transatlantic relations.” Merz has advocated for a stronger European stance and is pushing for a national security council in the chancellery.
Germany must now reset its relations with EU partners like France and Poland while ensuring national priorities align with broader European interests. A key challenge will be economic policy—mainly as EU countries discuss exempting defence spending from debt limits, which Germany has traditionally opposed.
The Future of the European Green Deal
While the CDU supports a European Energy Union, it opposes key EU Green Deal elements. The party is calling for reversing the 2035 ban on new combustion engine cars and relaxing CO2 fleet limits—moves that could weaken Europe’s climate agenda.
Germany’s stance will be critical in upcoming EU greenhouse gas reduction targets negotiations. Any signal of weakened climate ambition from Berlin could have far-reaching consequences.
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International Climate Finance Under Pressure
With the U.S. withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, Germany faces pressure to fill the climate leadership void. However, international climate finance may suffer with a tight budget and CDU-led calls for fiscal restraint. The party’s manifesto does not mention climate funding, focusing instead on technology transfers under the “Made in Germany” brand.
Trade, LNG, and Economic Strategy
Trump’s reimposed tariffs on steel and aluminium could hit Germany hard, but energy diplomacy may offer an alternative. Increased U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports could become a bargaining chip in negotiations, just as they did during Trump’s first term. CDU leader Merz has already suggested that LNG imports could be part of a broader strategy to maintain economic ties with the U.S.
Conclusion
Germany’s next government will have to navigate a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. Whether it strengthens EU unity or moves toward a more nationalist approach will define Europe’s role in the world—and determine whether the EU can remain a leader in the global green transition.
